Gold and Silver weekly Update – w/e 15th March 2019

Gold rose $2 last week from $1299 to $1301 having hit a high of $1,311 and a low of $1,290.  In sterling terms gold finished the week at £979 that’s down £19 and in Euros it closed at 1,148 Euros that’s down 7 euros.

Silver fell 5 cents from $15.34 to $15.29 having hit a high of $15.53 and a low of $15.14. In sterling terms, it closed at £11.50 that’s down 28 pence and in Euros it closed at 13.50 euros that’s down 0.15 euros.

The Gold to Silver Ratio rose from 84.7:1 to 85.1:1

The Dow Jones closed on Friday at 25,848 up 138 points on the day and up 398  points on the week, and the NASDAQ closed at 7,688 up 57 points on the day and up 280 points on the week, and the S&P 500 closed at 2822 up 14 points on the day and up 79 points on the week – all 3 indices reversing and improving upon the previous week’s decline

Brent Crude rose $1.42 from $65.74 to $67.16 and US Light Crude rose $2.46 cents from $56.07 to $58.52

The dollar index stands at 96.59 that’s down 0.44 on the week.

In last week’s report we pointed out that Analysts were predicting that gold could in fact rise back up to the $1325 level and by Thursday it did attempt a rally to $1311 but ran out of steam and fell back again.

On Friday the US Industrial production figures for February came out at 0.1% against a forecast of 0.4% and so proved quite disappointing.

Boring though it may sound, we feel that gold is relatively rangebound for the moment; with some analysts predicting a slight bias to the upside with virtually a similar number predicting a slight bias to the downside; –  though almost all agree that should gold dip below the $1275 and hold, then there could indeed be a sharp decline straight down to the $1200 level.

Once again silver markets basically aped the gold market though with less positive conviction. We witness a GSR of 85:1 and for us this is not surprising. In an environment of limited, or declining economic growth, no-one should be surprised to see silver’s gains as a monetary metal alternative being hampered with losses on the industrial demand side.

There certainly is considerable support at or just below the $15 level and probably equal resistance at the $16 – this does not make for an exciting environment for investors and speculators,  but does provide both time and opportunity for stackers to accumulate.

As far as both the gold and silver markets are concerned at present, they are basically dictated by the dollar value; though those dealing in sterling will have seen more favourable buying prices recently because of the slight strengthening of sterling against the US dollar – though until the outcome of Brexit is fully known, the uncertainty or fear factor will continue to prop up prices which otherwise would probably be around 10% lower than they actually are in sterling terms.

 

So, what do we have on the economic calendar for next week:

• Monday – Home Builders Index for March
• Tuesday – Factory orders for January
• Wednesday – All-important Federal Reserve announcement on Interest rates followed by Jerome Powell’s Press Conference – naturally we see no amendment or change to the interest rate, either up nor down, but analysts once again will be listening quite keenly to tone.
• Thursday – Current account deficit figures for Q4
• Friday – Markit Manufacturing and Services Flash PMI for March, Existing Home Sales for February and the Federal Budget for February.

So in conclusion, there will be some volatility prior to the FED’s announcement on Wednesday though we would expect sentiment to be marginally more positive for gold and silver prices than negative – having said that of course we still lean towards the assessment that these prices will fall below current levels once all of the controversial economic and political news is out of the way and a deal is eventually struck with China.

Meanwhile, we hope you have a most prosperous week ahead and for Silver members just a reminder that our Membership webinar has been added to webinar archives and we have begun loading a number of courses and eBooks in the relevant section of the website which can be downloaded for free.

We have already added 5 and will be adding between 3-5 each week for the next 6 weeks – so do take advantage of them as they more than underpin your membership fees without all of the other benefits on offer.