bumblethebard

I came across these two podcasts from April 2018. They are a debate about the future of cryptos between BTC advocate Tuur Demeester and skeptical hedge fund manager Erik Townsend. I have to say I agree with Erik. It is very unforunate, but governments just won’t tolerate a currency they can’t control.

Part 1.

Part 2.

While I would really like to see cryptocurrencies succeed, because taking monopoly control of currencies away from governments and central banks is a good thing, I don’t believe governments will tolerate it. If any crypto reaches the point where it becomes a serious threat to central bank control, it will be made illegal, or subjected to so many…[Read more]

Alacer Gold (ASR.TO) is highly exposed to Turkey. There is political risk here, because Turkey has significant economic problems and President Erdogan has been hinting that he may default on the government bonds. The next stage could be nationalisation of natural resources, including mines, or at least some substantial tax on them.

Lundin Mining…[Read more]

Leonardo’s arm has a DNA tatto – possibly a reference to genetic modification, or maybe identity chipping. I would guess the goggles are a reference to virtual reality or enhanced reality applications.

The armadillo (if that’s what it is) appears to be standing on Venezuela. Maybe it means that Venezuela, or at least the more robust elements of…[Read more]

Some other suggestions for interviews:

Andrew Maguire – https://andrewmaguiregoldtrading.com/ – gold trader and one of the advisors behind Kinesis.

Luke Gromen. Financial analyst. He has a Youtube channel with very few subscribers called “Luke Gromen – FFTT, LLC”. Well worth following in my view. He posts just once a week and answers questions…[Read more]

Well for my part at least, I am now accumulating shares in gold miners in expectation of gains in the gold price in Q1 2019. I like the following:

1. Royalties and streamers. The big companies in this space have done extremely well in recent years (Franco Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals, Royal Gold). I’m more interested in the smaller newcomers:…[Read more]

Just to anticipate any obvious objections: I know that GLD is just a paper instrument and in the event of a financial crash it might fail. I’m taking it for granted that you already own some physical gold for insurance. Also, this is not a leveraged play on gold: if you want that you are better off buying mining shares. This is intended to be a…[Read more]

The gold and silver mining shares have been picking up in the last few weeks. Jan/Feb are seasonally good times for the gold price because of demand for jewelry relating to the Chinese new year. Here’s hoping the stocks will start a significant move up. I could use another run like we had in the first half of 2016. I’ve also been brave enough to…[Read more]

A book recommendation: “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction” by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner.

This is a book by a pair of psychologists about how people make decisions on the basis of predictions. In 2003 the USA and the UK invaded Iraq on the basis of a conviction on the part of the intelligence community that Saddam had…[Read more]

As I see it, a country’s currency is in effect a claim on the future production and tax revenue of the citizens of that country. In the case of the Zimbabwean dollar, this claim is now worthless since the government has defaulted on it. Issuing currency, like issuing bonds, involves mortgaging the future of the people of the country, together with…[Read more]

I agree with Cabadejo. When prices are rising, dealers are often short of inventory and are only too happy to make purchases. When gold prices were rising in the first half of 2016, some dealers in the UK were offering to buy krugs at 100% of the spot price of gold. They make their money on the buy/sell margin, so as long as buyers are driving the…[Read more]

There are many clever people working on cryptocurrencies, so I wouldn’t bet against them, but they face huge challenges.

1. There are thousands of cryptos. Only a few are likely to survive.
2. Many have forked, which indicates a serious problem and calls into question their trustworthiness.
3. Prices are volatile, which is bad for merchants.
4.…[Read more]

Caribbean islands sound nice, but many of them have serious problems with violent crime and drug smuggling. Also, they are often a major destination for migrants from South America. Periodically their economies take a big hit because of hurricanes. The upside is they are one of the cheapest places to acquire a second passport by investment. When…[Read more]

A conjecture that I have just come across is that Trump has evidence that incriminates Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi and that Trump’s continued public support for the Saudis is implicitly a bargain under which they agree to continue to keep the oil flowing and the price down. I suppose it depends on how sensitive you…[Read more]